WP942021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

This simulation is NOT based on the official forecast track! It is using the AVNO model.
More than likely this is because it is an invest area and does not have an official track yet.

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss
Bangladesh $ .00 Million USD
India $ .02 Million USD
Myanmar $ .00 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ .02 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
India         39,546           13,968

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:         39,546           13,968

Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 51 53 66 81 -1 -1 INCREASING
AVNO 62 74 78 109 -1 -1 INCREASING
CEMN 87 98 87 92 -1 -1 INCREASING
CMC 84 101 111 86 -1 -1 INCREASING
HURN 98 164 263 333 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 25 39 72 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
UKM 96 90 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING

(7 rows)

Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast

Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Fri Dec 3 05:16:58 UTC 2021
Copyright(c) 2021 Enki Holdings, LLC. All Rights Reserved.