WP932021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

This simulation is NOT based on the official forecast track! It is using the AVNO model.
More than likely this is because it is an invest area and does not have an official track yet.

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss

type loss
Total Forecast Impact:  

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 60 74 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
AVNO 99 48 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CEMN 47 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CMC 29 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HURN 49 92 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 37 18 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING

(6 rows)

Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast

Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Mon Nov 29 11:08:30 UTC 2021
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