WP242021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss
China $ 304.94 Million USD
Hong Kong $ 46.85 Million USD
Laos $ .00 Million USD
Macao $ 14.32 Million USD
Philippines $ 2.08 Million USD
Vietnam $ 4.80 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ 372.98 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
China     34,782,151        9,741,986
Hong Kong      2,895,224        1,624,623
Macao        157,164          143,474
Philippines      1,175,245          134,313
Vietnam     10,153,527          466,454

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:     49,163,311       12,110,850


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 21 23 42 26 29 -1 INCREASING
AVNO 24 22 30 23 29 -1 INCREASING
CEMN 31 47 91 119 -1 -1 INCREASING
CMC 21 52 112 149 -1 -1 INCREASING
HURN 71 150 456 944 -1 -1 CONSTANT
HWRF 45 60 94 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
JTWC 36 39 56 37 62 -1 INCREASING
UKM 33 46 52 55 -1 -1 INCREASING

(8 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Thu Oct 14 09:09:43 UTC 2021
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