WP232021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss

type loss
Total Forecast Impact:  

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 45 89 245 431 636 758 INCREASING
AVNO 41 73 179 369 567 657 INCREASING
CEMN 62 123 269 448 695 853 INCREASING
CMC 51 100 239 390 492 655 INCREASING
HURN 91 186 446 770 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 40 82 204 350 518 -1 INCREASING
JTWC 49 100 240 413 581 624 INCREASING
UKM 42 87 244 427 565 619 INCREASING

(8 rows)

Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast

Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Sun Oct 17 14:39:28 UTC 2021
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