WP192021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss
China $ 108.73 Million USD
Japan $ 2.36 Million USD
Philippines $ 125.04 Million USD
South Korea $ .12 Million USD
Taiwan $ 4,761.42 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ 4,997.66 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
China     40,102,535          418,659
Japan         83,513            666        293,289
Philippines        178,052         27,818        116,640
Taiwan     12,023,892        445,029        443,436

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:     52,387,992        473,513      1,272,024


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 25 39 69 113 148 169 INCREASING
AVNO 24 39 73 134 182 207 INCREASING
CEMN 32 54 90 123 181 245 INCREASING
CMC 25 48 85 102 162 201 INCREASING
HURN 72 162 304 386 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 29 54 88 165 201 -1 INCREASING
JTWC 29 50 93 137 161 179 INCREASING
UKM 26 42 84 111 147 131 INCREASING

(8 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Sat Sep 18 02:17:24 UTC 2021
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