WP102021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss
China $ 649.57 Million USD
Hong Kong $ .00 Million USD
Macao $ .01 Million USD
Vietnam $ .00 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ 649.57 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
China     13,300,152        214,868      4,319,543

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:     13,300,152        214,868      4,319,543


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 21 28 38 56 132 306 INCREASING
AVNO 23 34 40 60 74 155 INCREASING
CEMN 27 44 108 325 644 664 INCREASING
CMC 31 68 162 139 320 -1 INCREASING
EGRR 17 26 34 96 266 -1 INCREASING
HURN 69 132 208 331 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 26 39 80 154 297 532 INCREASING
JMAE 19 19 38 59 96 -1 INCREASING
JTWC 20 29 46 119 185 229 INCREASING
NVGM 39 56 90 117 123 136 INCREASING
UKM 16 29 37 108 431 -1 INCREASING
XTRP 38 72 122 173 228 390 INCREASING

(12 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Fri Jul 23 13:53:13 UTC 2021
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