WP092021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss
China $ 2,108.29 Million USD
Japan $ 23.72 Million USD
South Korea $ .03 Million USD
Taiwan $ .04 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ 2,132.08 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
China    103,893,100        5,685,052
Japan      1,022,874           60,118

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:    104,915,974        5,745,170


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 35 45 61 101 157 218 INCREASING
AVNO 50 56 66 87 181 193 INCREASING
CEMN 40 57 127 222 352 505 INCREASING
CMC 25 33 72 130 224 406 INCREASING
EGRR 17 22 56 117 233 363 CONSTANT
HURN 66 135 273 417 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 54 69 84 129 176 260 INCREASING
JTWC 26 37 65 98 152 227 INCREASING
NVGM 42 54 78 110 162 247 INCREASING
UKM 17 22 56 117 233 363 CONSTANT
XTRP 59 114 213 324 428 464 INCREASING

(11 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Mon Jul 26 08:24:26 UTC 2021
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