EP932021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

CAUTION!
This simulation is NOT based on the official forecast track! It is using the AVNO model.
More than likely this is because it is an invest area and does not have an official track yet.


National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss
Mexico $ .00 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ .00 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:      


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AVNO 51 86 112 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CEMN 44 46 41 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CLP5 68 108 144 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CMC 38 52 42 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HMON 68 110 106 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HURN 65 76 166 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 45 86 138 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
NVGM 64 58 41 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABD 69 132 244 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABM 70 128 182 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABS 61 91 72 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TVCE 53 104 112 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TVCN 54 104 118 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
XTRP 75 130 194 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING

(14 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Sun Jun 13 17:11:44 UTC 2021
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