EP922021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

CAUTION!
This simulation is NOT based on the official forecast track! It is using the AVNO model.
More than likely this is because it is an invest area and does not have an official track yet.


National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss

type loss
Total Forecast Impact:  

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:      


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 32 40 50 121 279 176 INCREASING
AVNO 31 41 50 145 254 307 INCREASING
CEMN 53 75 119 193 316 410 INCREASING
CLP5 49 78 189 295 316 390 INCREASING
CMC 51 49 63 98 202 174 INCREASING
HMON 33 28 57 79 -1 351 INCREASING
HURN 64 125 259 413 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 35 42 69 81 88 212 INCREASING
NVGM 48 80 78 197 245 268 INCREASING
TABD 42 56 71 290 558 563 INCREASING
TABM 40 52 54 225 458 488 INCREASING
TABS 45 54 71 124 201 191 INCREASING
TVCE 36 33 54 77 153 213 INCREASING
TVCN 38 36 60 69 120 210 INCREASING
XTRP 55 88 199 214 203 443 CONSTANT

(15 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Sat Jun 12 17:09:54 UTC 2021
Copyright(c) 2021 Enki Holdings, LLC. All Rights Reserved.