EP162021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss
Guatemala $ .00 Million USD
Mexico $ 139.29 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ 139.29 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Mexico      2,040,750         13,437          4,832

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:      2,040,750         13,437          4,832


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AVNO 42 59 125 205 290 344 INCREASING
CEMN 45 60 84 132 277 351 INCREASING
CLP5 75 144 301 411 452 634 INCREASING
CMC 43 64 119 138 93 74 INCREASING
HMON 39 55 108 189 -1 624 INCREASING
HWRF 40 64 101 162 287 482 INCREASING
NVGM 46 53 56 92 108 221 INCREASING
OFCL 25 35 60 179 -1 -1 CONSTANT
TABD 53 93 170 225 221 110 INCREASING
TABM 53 81 135 202 237 244 INCREASING
TABS 63 105 206 280 272 235 INCREASING
TVCE 35 54 76 174 309 580 INCREASING
TVCN 36 53 69 169 311 -1 INCREASING
XTRP 76 168 396 699 933 1366 CONSTANT

(14 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Thu Oct 14 03:10:26 UTC 2021
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