EP062021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss

type loss
Total Forecast Impact:  

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:      


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 30 40 53 72 96 149 INCREASING
AVNO 29 38 56 78 120 133 CONSTANT
CEMN 30 38 51 43 65 127 INCREASING
CLP5 33 72 151 190 229 273 INCREASING
CMC 21 25 49 57 92 155 INCREASING
EGRR 22 28 48 84 93 97 INCREASING
HMON 20 32 62 83 -1 143 CONSTANT
HURN 34 69 156 198 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 18 28 43 64 106 190 INCREASING
NVGM 29 36 79 122 138 159 INCREASING
OFCL 11 59 39 64 97 122 INCREASING
TABD 28 58 113 164 230 320 INCREASING
TABM 26 52 104 154 205 258 INCREASING
TABS 26 48 85 119 149 202 INCREASING
TVCE 16 26 43 57 70 93 INCREASING
TVCN 15 25 41 56 69 94 INCREASING
UKM 22 27 47 73 82 118 INCREASING
XTRP 32 73 188 302 395 492 CONSTANT

(18 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Wed Jul 21 10:56:36 UTC 2021
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