AL962021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

CAUTION!
This simulation is NOT based on the official forecast track! It is using the AVNO model.
More than likely this is because it is an invest area and does not have an official track yet.


National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss
Bermuda $ .01 Million USD
Canada $ .01 Million USD
Portugal $ .00 Million USD
Saint Pierre and Miquelon $ .00 Million USD
United States $ .00 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ .02 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Bermuda          7,719    

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:          7,719    


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 45 55 80 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
AVNO 45 78 131 47 -1 -1 INCREASING
CEMN 66 60 175 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CLP5 62 87 243 287 -1 -1 INCREASING
CMC 65 60 117 205 -1 -1 INCREASING
EGRR 58 48 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HMON 29 73 167 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HURN 65 106 286 389 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 47 89 143 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
NVGM 75 126 94 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABD 54 88 203 174 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABM 52 61 158 191 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABS 54 40 77 114 -1 -1 INCREASING
TVCE 41 69 172 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TVCN 43 68 165 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
UKM 58 48 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
XTRP 69 89 203 229 -1 -1 INCREASING

(17 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Fri Sep 17 17:24:19 UTC 2021
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