AL952021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

CAUTION!
This simulation is NOT based on the official forecast track! It is using the AVNO model.
More than likely this is because it is an invest area and does not have an official track yet.


National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss
Guinea $ .00 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ .00 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:      


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 106 158 267 417 516 -1 INCREASING
AVNO 113 167 195 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CEMN 118 207 416 312 -1 -1 INCREASING
CLP5 102 141 181 314 395 491 INCREASING
CMC 138 209 193 324 226 -1 INCREASING
HMON 70 139 359 543 -1 -1 INCREASING
HURN 106 149 245 413 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 83 133 224 312 325 -1 INCREASING
NVGM 135 240 587 939 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABD 95 119 140 266 341 492 INCREASING
TABM 94 125 159 259 335 325 INCREASING
TABS 96 143 247 408 475 525 INCREASING
TVCE 97 152 294 314 236 -1 INCREASING
TVCN 97 150 278 236 236 -1 INCREASING
XTRP 107 169 209 271 348 842 INCREASING

(15 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Sat Sep 18 11:21:14 UTC 2021
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