AL142021 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

National Level Economic Impact Forecast
country_name totloss
Mexico $ .03 Million USD
United States $ 287.48 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ 287.51 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Mexico          6,890            1,106
United States      8,522,292          151,504

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:      8,529,182          152,610


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 44 63 113 141 182 180 INCREASING
AVNO 43 61 90 109 151 175 INCREASING
CEMN 45 53 76 124 254 519 INCREASING
CLP5 66 135 291 375 343 310 CONSTANT
CMC 41 95 161 205 160 181 CONSTANT
HMON 42 52 72 99 113 288 INCREASING
HURN 59 98 278 229 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 48 69 101 168 153 186 INCREASING
NVGM 34 42 92 124 158 218 INCREASING
OFCL 42 53 61 139 153 84 INCREASING
TABD 69 127 246 382 523 533 INCREASING
TABM 57 91 136 217 269 213 INCREASING
TABS 73 142 270 386 491 644 INCREASING
TVCE 40 52 77 111 182 173 INCREASING
TVCN 41 53 80 111 168 171 INCREASING
XTRP 68 153 359 612 868 985 INCREASING

(16 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by mf1.methaz.org at Fri Sep 17 21:09:42 UTC 2021
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